The Q3 CEIR Complete Index – a measure of general exhibition efficiency – registered 11.2% beneath the identical interval in 2019, marking an enchancment over the 14.6% shortfall in Q3 2023. The Index gained 3.4 share factors in comparison with Q3 2023 and 1.1 factors in comparison with Q2 2024.
Determine 1 illustrates exhibition trade efficiency for occasions occurring between Q1 2022 and Q3 2024, in comparison with the identical quarter in 2019. The most recent outcomes for Q3 2024 present a slight upturn relative to the second quarter of 2024, according to financial exercise. Amongst all occasions within the Index pattern, 33.8% have surpassed their pre-pandemic CEIR Complete Index efficiency. This represents a big improve from Q3 2023 when solely 25.9% of occasions held in that quarter surpassed 2019 outcomes.
The cancellation price for in-person occasions remained low at 0.3%, considerably decrease than 1.6% in Q3 2023.
“The data show a picture of continued rebuilding for the exhibition industry,” mentioned President of Tourism Economics Adam Sacks. “These events remain vital to successful business operations and our forecasts for corporate performance support an outlook of further growth in 2025.”
“The Q3 2024 CEIR Index reveals a resilient B2B exhibition industry on a continued path to recovery,” added IAEE President and CEO Marsha Flanagan, M.Ed., CEM. “While we are still tracking below 2019 levels, we are seeing encouraging signs of growth. CEIR will launch an Organizer Benchmarking Study at the outset of 2025, leveraging additional data sets. This research will provide additional understanding of lagging and leading indicators, to gain deeper insights and drive industry advancement.”
Q3 2024 CEIR Metric Efficiency
Among the many 4 elements of the Complete Index, NSF has recovered probably the most, reaching simply 2.7% behind 2019. The Exhibitors metric follows at 7.0% beneath Q3 2019. Actual Revenues (inflation-adjusted) have been slower to recuperate, with a shortfall of 16.3% relative to 2019, and the Attendees metric has been the slowest to recuperate from Q3 2019, with a shortfall of 17.8% (Determine 2).
Whereas decrease unemployment and decrease rates of interest are giving customers an encouraging outlook, excessive costs proceed to take their toll, doubtlessly affecting commerce present attendance. In actual fact, the College of Michigan’s client sentiment index fell from 70.1 to 68.9 in October, in opposition to forecasts for a small rise within the index.
Evaluating the outcomes to occasions held in Q3 2023, we see a similarity with relative power in NSF and lagging attendance.
The U.S. Financial system: On strong footing
The CEIR Index outcomes are according to U.S. financial efficiency, the place the information paint an encouraging portrait. Annualized GDP rose 2.8% within the third quarter, with evident power in client spending. The resiliency of the labor market and deceleration in inflation stay conducive to actual disposable revenue development.
The Private Consumption Expenditures (PCE) deflator registered a 2.3% year-over-year improve in Q3 – very near the Federal Reserve’s 2% goal. Actual disposable revenue, key to client spending, elevated 1.6% at an annualized price in Q3, weaker than the achieve within the prior three months, but unalarming.
Oxford Economics’ enterprise cycle indicator (BCI) which tracks development in key coincident indicators, ticked up modestly from its elevated ranges initially of Q3 (Determine 3). Regardless of the hurricane impacts and a strike at Boeing which closely dented job beneficial properties, the unemployment price sits at 4.1%, and layoffs stay low.
Among the many weakest spots is manufacturing, as industrial manufacturing continues to say no year-over-year. The hurricanes and the Boeing strike closely impacted the newest industrial manufacturing figures. Industrial manufacturing has moved sideways since Q2 2022 however ought to sustainably head northward subsequent yr. Decrease rates of interest will increase enterprise funding, whereas secular drivers corresponding to synthetic intelligence, the CHIPS and IRA laws, fading drag from previous tightening in business and industrial lending, and rising electrical energy demand will stay in place.
Whereas the outlook for the financial system stays optimistic, elevated rates of interest stay a draw back threat. Stickier-than-anticipated inflation experiences coupled with current employment experiences, which underscore a still-strong labor market, have once more shifted the steadiness of dangers for financial coverage. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell acknowledged that the “[t]he economy is not sending any signals that we need to be in a hurry to lower rates.” Whereas our outlook is for one more 25bp minimize in December adopted by three extra in 2025, the chance is that the Fed cuts fewer instances.
Trying into 2025, the U.S. financial system is ready to outperform different superior economies, supported by labor development (whatever the new administration’s insurance policies), sturdy funding, and an expansionary fiscal coverage. Whereas larger tariffs shall be a theme for 2025, there stays some uncertainty about how far the pendulum will swing, and the financial implications are usually not anticipated to be felt till late within the yr and even in 2026.
The influence of decrease immigration on the labor market will play out over time (Determine 4). Partially, it’s because new immigrants develop into progressively extra connected to the labor market over time, and immigrant cohorts from the earlier two years will proceed to contribute to labor power beneficial properties a yr after immigration constraints are carried out.
As well as, we anticipate enterprise tools spending to rise by greater than 5% subsequent yr regardless of coverage uncertainty. The basics favor strong development, however there are 5 different causes to be optimistic: previous will increase in manufacturing constructions funding, fiscal coverage, ongoing AI-related funding, easing lending requirements, and robust financial incentives. Heightened coverage uncertainty has traditionally weighed on enterprise tools spending, however we anticipate this drag to be modest, as recession considerations fade and assist offset a few of the drag from the shortage of readability on coverage, particularly associated to commerce.
As with many areas, it’s tough to anticipate the precise actions that the Trump Administration and Congress will take over the following a number of years, and the influence these actions and related messaging can have on journey. Nonetheless, we anticipate development in Chinese language visits to lower on account of more and more adverse rhetoric between the 2 nations and an acceleration of tit-for-tat commerce restrictions. That is along with lowered development from the Center East on account of adverse rhetoric and doable visa restrictions.
Furthermore, development in worldwide journey from Canada and Mexico is predicted to lower, assuming ill-will towards the U.S. mounts within the wake of latest tariffs plus a adverse influence on visitation from Mexico following immigration enforcement on the borders.
About CEIRThe Middle for Exhibition Trade Analysis (CEIR) serves to advance the expansion, consciousness and worth of exhibitions and different face-to-face advertising and marketing occasions by producing and delivering knowledge-based analysis instruments that allow stakeholder organizations to reinforce their capacity to fulfill present and rising buyer wants, enhance their enterprise efficiency and strengthen their aggressive place. For extra data, go to www.ceir.org.
About Oxford Economics
Oxford Economics is without doubt one of the world’s foremost unbiased world advisory companies, offering experiences, forecasts and analytical instruments for 200 nations, 100 industrial sectors and over 3,000 cities. With our Tourism Economics subsidiary, we deploy best-in-class world fashions and analytical instruments to forecast exterior market tendencies and assess their enterprise impacts. Headquartered in Oxford, England, with regional facilities in London, New York, and Singapore, Oxford Economics has workplaces throughout the globe, using over 600 full-time employees and one of many largest groups of macroeconomists and thought management specialists. Study extra at www.tourismeconomics.com / www.oxfordeconomics.com.
Commerce Information
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